Progressive Possession: Preseason Highlights

Preseason Game Analysis:

2/17 Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Portland opened a three game preseason round-robin tournament vs. last years top MLS side over the course of the leauge, San Jose Earthquakes.  MLS does crown a playoff champion as the leagues outright champion, but the regular season league winner gets a booby prize entitled The Supporter's Shield.  San Jose were the unlucky recipients of this award in 2012.  Needless to say, this match should provide a solid indicator of where Portland matches up with a quality MLS side.  Preseason results are not important, but more the progress a team is making in regards to fitness, and style of play.




The first thing you may notice is the crowd.  For a preseason match, and an American crowd, this is noteworthy.  It's not common place in MLS that a crowd can provide a true home-field advantage, let alone in preseason.  Jeld-Wen Field definitely does provide a Europeanesque atmosphere as the Timbers army raise the decibel level.

From an analysis point of view, you will notice Portland gets off to possibly the worst start possible.  Going down a goal within the first 1:30 off a soft defensive lapse resulting in a penalty is hardly the start anyone had in mind.  The commentators (who were surprisingly intelligent) referenced a few interesting pieces of information that is widely unknown about the first year boss. Porter had a short lived MLS playing career that was ended by a knee injury.  His first ever professional match was ended early as he was sent off for a rash tackle.  Ironically enough, in his first head coaching job at Akron he was sent off and his team were beaten handily 5-0.  That Akron team also did not even qualify for the NCAA post season losing the conference tournament at home.  Fast forward to his unsuccessful stint as the US U-23 Olympic team coach last year where they failed to qualify for the Olympics on home soil.  For all Porter's successes he has faced his fare share of adversity as well.  His team's always seem to rebound from these early failures, however.  A toughness or inner drive is apparent in the DNA of his teams.

Portland's mental toughness was on show over the preseason matches. Portland showed an uncanny ability to rebound superbly well from goal deficits. While it's difficult to witness on this particular video, but if you do find the full game video online, you will immediately notice that after going down a goal, Portland presses relentlessly for the next several minutes.  Even after tying the match, they immediately press San Jose on the kick off (reminiscent of Real Madrid's tactics vs. Barcelona in 2011 Classico on 12/11/11 Real Madrid pressing results in Valdes mistakes) chasing the game high forcing long errant clearances they duly pick up time after time. This is not a random occurrence;  this is a tactical decision intended to set the tone and attitude of the group. To be fair, it does seem to have the desired effect. It's a tactic I am going to be instituting at a grass roots level to experiment with. Being a goal down within 2:00 they tie the match up within the 4:00 minute mark.  Some nice play out wide thru combination of one touch passing leading to a service that was met by Ryan Johnson.  Johnson nearly pulled his run too far past the near post, but he gets the angle and weight of the header perfect sending it out of reach of the smallest GK in MLS, Jon Busch (5'9'').

On Portland's 2nd goal Darlington Nagbe shows his dynamic potential.  Nagbe initiates the attack from nothing - taking off with the ball from just behind midfield. Nagbe drives into space and shows his pace and control gliding by three players before combining with Diego Valeri who cleverly slots Ryan Johnson in behind off with a drop of the shoulder and one touch straight ball where Johnson does well to hold his run before a classy finish outside the foot finish.  Individual efforts within the team framework.  Shades of the dynamic Akron sides we saw in 2009-2011.

Ryan Johnson again shows what he brings to the table at minute 52:00.  Thru raw athleticism and composure under pressure, he combines well with Valeri to run in behind on what appears to be a rather simple goal. Breaking this play down further, there are a number of simple sequential movements  worked in unison for goal number three.  I'd recommend watching this goal a few times freezing to take full appreciation.  Johnson does very well to receive a firm ball with the inside of the foot from a deep player (Progressive Possession characteristic #1-2, 5) receiving in pressure on the turn (PP #3-4) before playing a slight diagonal ball with an extra player (PP #6-7) before receiving a quick return pass (<2 seconds; PP #1-2) from Valeri. Johnson completes his one-touch hat-trick in just under an hour.  A simple goal, yet Portland nails the Progressive Possession characteristics 1-7.  This is a great example of Portland's ideology and emphasis on a specific style of play. 

Beyond the initial Progressive Possession characteristics on show, the highlights do point to some of the other trends mentioned in our first analysis of Portland.  The attacking runs of Ryan Miller are evident early in the match.  Defensive frailty was on show several times on the night as well.

• A soft penalty from no pressure
• A nothing restart where some slack marking resulted in a San Jose player being able to slip between three Portland markers and head timidly on goal, and 
• A poor clearance on the third goal leading to a turnover before flying challenges and a poor punch from Rickets (combined with poor support from his defense leaving two players unmarked in the area to tap home).

On a positive note, conceding soft goals from restarts are the kind of mistakes that are not hard to fix. Nothing drastic needs to be done.  Offensively, Portland were able to stamp their authority on the match.  They dominated possession for large stretches of the game, had some nice one touch passing combinations, had good field spacing, and looked particularly dangerous when their game changers got on the ball. Nagbe and Valeri shared the creative burden and Johnson completed a home debut hat-trick. These three players could prove to be one of the most dangerous trio's in MLS if they can learn to play off one another, create space, and continue to build their games within the framework of the team's philosophy.

Man of the Match:
Ryan Johnson - was lethal with his chances.  Diego Valeri deserves mention as well, but Johnson was magnificent for Portland tonight taking all three opportunities with aplomb.  Johnson displayed some cultured finishing with his head and left foot on three one-touch efforts.  He did well to occupy both San Jose center-backs all night, while also drifting along the line to peel in behind to give Portland a threat in behind and provide variety in the attack.  His movement was superb and showed a level of intelligence to match his athleticism.  At times Johnson dropped deep working in great harmony off Diego Valeri.  This positional interchange with Valeri highlighted a creative attacking group where Valeria occupied the space high as Johnson came shallow before turning, and combining on a nice simple inter-play to unlock San Jose's defense for a third time.

As mentioned in our last post, in this system and style of play, without a true #9 to stretch the game in behind, the attack can become predictable and lack substance.  One could even accuse Barcelona and Spain of this at times over the last year. The gradual shift at Barcelona from Eto', Henry, Ibrahimovic to Iniesta, Fabregas, and Messi while at Spain the withdrawal (and loss of form) of Torres for 6 attack minded midfield creators leads to total dominant possession, but lacking penetration.  Caleb Porter post game press conference At minute 6:20 Porter discusses how the attack can become stale without this 'in behind' presence that Ryan Johnson brings.

Progressive Possession: Analysis Portland Timbers

Analysis One:  Portland Timbers


Culture:
The Portland Timbers are beginning their 3rd year of MLS play.  Previously, this organization existed in the USL "A" League.  They have since been "promoted" in an unconventional fashion. The club was first formed in 2001 and competed in the USL until 2010.  Portland does have roots back to the defunct NASL in 1975 as well.  Portland does have one of the top fan support groups within MLS.  From every presser and article read, you do get the impression that the Portland front office is trying their best to put out a quality product to appease fan groups, and keep support high.  This is a common tactic for new coaches to appeal to the interest of fans, but you do get the sense there is something specific detailed within the blueprint of the Portland Timbers front office in coordination with what Caleb Porter is trying to do.

Stadium
Portland Timbers play in a refurbished minor league baseball stadium, which one might think is a negative.  The truth of the matter is that it is a mixed bag.  The actual seating is a plus.  When watching games played at Jeld-Wen Field, the noise levels do seem to rival those of some European clubs.  A rarity for any MLS side.  This is in part due to the American style baseball roof that covers the Timbers Army, the Portland supporters group.  The negative to Jeld-Wen Field is that the climate in Portland, Oregon means that natural grass is not a possibility.  Jeld-Wen Field's surface is Field-turf and appears narrow with how slick the ball can move on the turf.  If touches or passes are heavy or leading, it does lead to turnovers.  This does provide a home field advantage for Portland as opposing teams seem to aimlessly clear the ball long often.  Portland may credit this down to their pressing game, but surely the surface does play a role.

Backroom Staff: 
Manager: Caleb Porter (1st yr)
Assistant:  Gavin Wilkinson (former Timbers player; served as Interim Head Coach in 2012)

Preferred Tactics:

- 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 (narrow or offset diamond)
- Attacking fullbacks
- Width, depth.  Patient build up from the back inter-mixed with one touch passing in attacking third

Key players (in order of importance):

- Diego Valeri (ACM)
- Ryan Johnson (CF)
- Darlington Nagbe (LW/ACM)
- Will Johnson (DCM)
- Ryan Miller (RB)

When constructing his team, Caleb Porter has a tendency to focus building on certain positions he determines as vital.  This can especially be seen within MLS league policies of Salary Cap and Designated Players (ACM Diego Valeri, CF Ryan Johnson).  The truth is, even beyond the unusual league rules of MLS, these positions are crucial in modern football.  When playing a high tempo, one touch passing, and high pressing game, you need technical players with a brain in the centre of the pitch (W. Johnson, Valeri, Nagbe) combined with a physical component to stretch opposing teams in behind, hold the ball up, while also being comfortable in combination play (R. Johnson, Nagbe). The final piece in Porter's system are attacking full backs.  Ryan Miller has impressed early on in the preseason matches. He is athletic, has a strong engine and compliments the side well with grit and toughness.

Projected first choice 11:


The basic formula Caleb Porter tends to build on focuses on 3 distinct prongs:

Technique, Athleticism, Soccer IQ

Midfield Triangle:
The triangle of Johnson, Chara, and Valeri fit the "passer, destroyer, creator" model often seen over the last decade in Europe.  A prime example of this trio was the Liverpool side of 2007-2009 containing Mascherano, Alonso, and Gerrard.  More recent examples at Barcelona of Busquets, Xavi, and Iniesta have led way to the next evolution in midfield triangle tactics.  Portland Timbers midfield three more closely resembles a Barcelona model than the Liverpool model.  At Liverpool, Mascherno was often the deep lying disruptive force, a similar positioning that Sergio Busquotes occupies for Barcelona.  Will Johnson is much more a passer than a destroyer.  Chara serves as the engine putting out fires.  At times Chara can seem to be lacking in technical qualities, but if he keeps his game simple and plays the role of a worker in the centre of the park, he will find himself on the field for PTFC.

The real game changer here is their DP, Diego Valeri.  Although he is not blessed with tremendous athletic tools (in a league that highly prioritizes athletic ability) he more than compensates for in IQ, vision, and technique.  While I don't see him having the same impact Freddy Montero did at Seattle a few years ago as a DP, he will be vital to Portland's success in 2013.  He has proved highly influential in the preseason fixtures thus far through his creative abilities and providing an overall technique and different aspect floating between the lines.  An injury to him might lead to a severe decline in goal production and overall chance creation.

Negatives of this system:
Having had the chance to closely observe Porter at Akron (including Nagbe, Zemanski, Nanchoff, and Meves) for several seasons, one could definitely see the evolution in Porter's tactics from his early years at Akron to his final year.  Porter's tactical focus began to shift towards complete possession and less about individual brilliance.  As the Spanish game underwent slight changes in their methodology, one could see Porter's Akron teams adopt similar hegemony shifts. Having housed some of the top players in the college game over the last half of his tenure at Akron, his teams always displayed an enjoyable style of play.  However, during the last year of his time at Akron, one could see a flaw in the system.

His shift from the unique 4-4-2 offset diamond to more of a conventional 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 led to an element of predictability in the attack.  His sides need pure out and out wingers to provide the width and unlock defenses.  In 2012, his Akron side was lacking a direct threat in behind that they were previously blessed with in Zakuani, Bunbury, and Mattocks.  This Portland team does have an athletic presence to stretch the game in the Jamaican  R. Johnson, but they do lack true out-and-out wingers.  This might be an issue for Portland this year.

Defensively, they do appear a bit suspect.  The defense has not been priority #1 for Porter.  It is always easier to destroy than create, which might explain why the emphasis has heavily been on building the possession game first and building the defense afterwords.  The pressing game is still a priority for Porter, but when assembling this group, you can see where his priorities lie.  In the back, the addition of Mikel Silvestre is an interesting one.  Never the most mobile player, his age and pace might be exposed in the athletic crazed MLS.  Portland is going to be relying on Silvestre's experience and Rickets International playing pedigree in goal to help steady the ship.

Positives of this system:
Portland has begun to imprint their DNA through the preseason.  The focus is clear - attacking, possession football.  Over the course of their last three preseason games, the plan is clear.  Dictate possession for long enough and chance creation will yield itself.  Their best halves of football took place in the 1st half vs. San Jose, the Supporters Shield winner (best league record in 2012), and 2nd half vs. AIK in their final tune up last week.  They conceded soft goals in both games, yet their attacking play was highly positive.

As expected, Portland's attacks flow through their skilled guys.  Valeri, Nagbe or Johnson usually have a hand in all good things going forward.  This system will highlight all three's strengths as players who want to play good football.  Porter's teams always have high goal scoring production and the CF (similar to at Manchester Utd) in those systems always stand to gain the most.

Using W. Johnson as the fulcrum that attacks build from should also further enhance this possession ideology.  The verdict is still out on his defensive capabilities, however. An interesting space to watch will be Nagbe.  He is one of the quickest and most promising players in MLS, yet he is a touch of a "tweener". Tactical development over the last 10-15 years has allowed for skilled players who lack a true position to thrive in the modern game with the development of the "false 9" and as Brendan Rodgers recently coined, "false winger, a 7 and 1/2". Nagbe may be best served as an "off" forward working in tandem with R. Johnson, but currently he is lining up on the left with freedom to float. As Nagbe grows in confidence, he will be a top MLS performer before long. If Porter can draw the best out of Nagbe, and solve his positional query while combining the class of Valeri and R. Johnson, Portland will be an exciting team in 2013.

In closing, Portland has assembled a team that highlight the strengths of Porter's system. Pace, strength, and bravery combined with intelligence, technical prowess, and difference makers in key roles. Portland should prove to be an exciting team to watch.  It will be interesting to see how they turn their possession orientated style into goals and, ultimately, wins amidst a rugged and combative MLS schedule.

Progressive Possession: Introduction

Progressive Possession: Introduction

This blog will choose to feature one 1st team football club every 4 weeks.   Through the course of the 4 weeks, we will examine the tactics, personal, coaching staff, stadium, fans, climate, and overall culture at the club.  Over the course of the study, we will aim to examine between 7-10 matches.  We will focus the analysis heavily on the team we are studying, but also keep its opponent in mind (and how it impacts tactics).  Within this month period we will look to predict future success or failure at the respective club.

We will explicitly look to analyze teams that are future thinking and display characteristics of progressive possession attacking teams.

What is Progressive Possession?
Progressive Possession is a term coined by the Croatian FF Youth Technical Director Romeo Jozak.  His presentation focused around the concept of progressive possession.  Romeo Jozak outlined 24 characteristics that progressive possession sides display. Drawing on science and observation, Romeo presented findings for analyzing three seasons in the English Premier League.  His study examined the number of completed pass attempts in correlation to league finish over 3 seasons.  Using the data collected, he was able to assess the foundation for his findings, find misnomers, and take away what the top sides are doing to win.(*All credit and due licensing of the term Progressive Possession belongs to Romeo Jozak)

Statistical Analysis of English Premier League 2009-2012

2009-2010

League Rank based on # of passes per game                    League Finish Position

1.    Arsenal                                                                                         1. Chelsea
2.     Manchester Utd                                                                            2. Manchester Utd
3.     Chelsea                                                                                        3. Arsenal      
4.     Tottenham                                                                                    4. Tottenham

2010-2011

# of passes per game                                                              League  Finish Position

1. Arsenal                                                                                         1. Manchester United
2. Manchester United                                                                        2. Chelsea
3. Chelsea                                                                                        3. Manchester City
4. Manchester City                                                                            4. Arsenal 

2011-2012

# of passes per game                                                              League Finish Position

1.   Swansea                                                                                    1.Manchester City 
2.     Arsenal                                                                                     2. Manchester United
3.     Manchester United                                                                    3. Arsenal
4.     Manchester City                                                                        4. Tottenham

11. Swansea** - Why finish so low?

-       Swansea ranked 20^th on average penalty area entry per game

In this study, Romeo Jozak broke down several positions further:

1.96 avg # of touches in EPL matches
1.80 avg # of touches in Champions Leagues matches
<2 seconds avg time per reception (averaged total)
     - Center Back > 6 seconds with no pressure
     - Center Mid   <1 seconds with extreme pressure

Of all the interesting data points presented, perhaps the most interesting takeaway was the anomaly of Swansea City under Brendan Rodgers.  Upon promotion, they finished first in completed passes per game.  Given the previous criteria one would relate these statistic to finishing within the top 4.  Further statistical analysis shed light to the fact that the finished 20th in average penalty area entry.  Romeo Jozak discussed that if they put more attempts in the area perhaps they would have cracked a European place.  Finishing 11th for a promoted team is still a success.  I gather that this philosophy employed at Swansea shows that they are close, but still not seeing the full picture.  As Brendan Rodgers develops his vision at Liverpool, it will be an interesting space to observe over the next 1-2 seasons to see what kind of steps forward they can take, as a club and as a manager/philosophy.



The top 8 characteristics of Progressive Possession Sides:

1. Quick control- pass action of ball

2. Hard pass inside of feet

3. Visual checking behind (looking around) before receiving (head swivel 3 times)

4. Control w/ a turn – if turn is not possible, 1 touch back to same player or 3^rd player

5. Width-depth

6. Create an extra player

7 Switch with a diagonal

8. 4-5 players attacking penalty box