Progressive Possession: Introduction
This blog will choose to feature one 1st team football club every 4 weeks. Through the course of the 4 weeks, we will examine the tactics, personal, coaching staff, stadium, fans, climate, and overall culture at the club. Over the course of the study, we will aim to examine between 7-10 matches. We will focus the analysis heavily on the team we are studying, but also keep its opponent in mind (and how it impacts tactics). Within this month period we will look to predict future success or failure at the respective club.
We will explicitly look to analyze teams that are future thinking and display characteristics of progressive possession attacking teams.
What is Progressive Possession?
Progressive Possession is a term coined by the Croatian FF Youth Technical Director Romeo Jozak. His presentation focused around the concept of progressive possession. Romeo Jozak outlined 24 characteristics that progressive possession sides display. Drawing on science and observation, Romeo presented findings for analyzing three seasons in the English Premier League. His study examined the number of completed pass attempts in correlation to league finish over 3 seasons. Using the data collected, he was able to assess the foundation for his findings, find misnomers, and take away what the top sides are doing to win.(*All credit and due licensing of the term Progressive Possession belongs to Romeo Jozak)
Statistical Analysis of English Premier League 2009-2012
2009-2010
League Rank based on # of passes per game League Finish Position
- Arsenal 1. Chelsea
- Manchester Utd 2. Manchester Utd
- Chelsea 3. Arsenal
- Tottenham 4. Tottenham
2010-2011
# of passes per game League Finish Position
- Arsenal 1. Manchester United
- Manchester United 2. Chelsea
- Chelsea 3. Manchester City
- Manchester City 4. Arsenal
2011-2012
# of passes per game League Finish Position
- Swansea 1.Manchester City
- Arsenal 2. Manchester United
- Manchester United 3. Arsenal
- Manchester City 4. Tottenham
11. Swansea** - Why finish so low?
- Swansea ranked 20th on average penalty area entry per game
In this study, Romeo Jozak broke down several positions further:
1.96 avg # of touches in EPL matches
1.80 avg # of touches in Champions Leagues matches
<2 seconds avg time per reception (averaged total)
- Center Back > 6 seconds with no pressure
- Center Mid <1 seconds with extreme pressure
Of all the interesting data points presented, perhaps the most interesting takeaway was the anomaly of Swansea City under Brendan Rodgers. Upon promotion, they finished first in completed passes per game. Given the previous criteria one would relate these statistic to finishing within the top 4. Further statistical analysis shed light to the fact that the finished 20th in average penalty area entry. Romeo Jozak discussed that if they put more attempts in the area perhaps they would have cracked a European place. Finishing 11th for a promoted team is still a success. I gather that this philosophy employed at Swansea shows that they are close, but still not seeing the full picture. As Brendan Rodgers develops his vision at Liverpool, it will be an interesting space to observe over the next 1-2 seasons to see what kind of steps forward they can take, as a club and as a manager/philosophy.
The top 8 characteristics of Progressive Possession Sides:
1. Quick control- pass action of ball
2. Hard pass inside of feet
3. Visual checking behind (looking around) before receiving (head swivel 3 times)
4. Control w/ a turn – if turn is not possible, 1 touch back to same player or 3rd player
5. Width-depth
6. Create an extra player
7 Switch with a diagonal
8. 4-5 players attacking penalty box
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